The Surrey Context: Key Strategic Data and Indicators

joint strategic needs assessment

The Surrey Context: Key Strategic Data and Indicators

Components of population change

Please follow the link or explore the ‘births, deaths and migration’ page of the Surrey population tableau dashboard below.

In recent years births in Surrey have declined from 13,542 births in 2015 to 11,474 in 2023. Deaths were also decreasing between 2015 and 2019 but increased from 9,855 in 2019 to 11,755 in 2020. Deaths began to reduce again in 2021 to 11,047. This increase coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic. Migration into Surrey remains higher than migration out of Surrey, although since 2018 the gap has been reducing. In 2020 net migration was 3,758.

Figure 4: Births and Deaths in Surrey

Chart showing the trends of births and deaths in Surrey. Births in Surrey were around 13,500 in 2015, and were decreasing to around 12,000 in 2020. There was a slight increase to around 12,500 births in 2021, but births have since been decreasing again to around 11,500 in 2023. Deaths mostly remained steady with a slight decrease, going from around 10,200 deaths in 2015 to just under 10,000 deaths in 2019. There was a sharp increase in deaths in 2020 to just under 12,000. This was almost the same as the number of births in that year. Deaths decreased in 2021 to just over 11,000 deaths. There is no data for deaths for 2022 and 2023.

Leading causes of mortality

Please follow the link or explore the ‘mortality’ page of the Surrey population tableau dashboard below.

Common causes of mortality should be considered when exploring and implementing interventions to prevent or improve health outcomes. The leading causes of mortality in 2023 in Surrey were:

Cancer (23.9%)
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (14.4%)
Ischaemic heart diseases (also called coronary heart/ artery disease (8.6%)
Influenza and pneumonia (5.7%)
Cerebrovascular diseases (such as Stroke) (5.4%)

Figure 5: Leading causes of death in surrey (2023)

Chart showing the leading causes of death in Surrey by gender. The leading cause of death in Surrey is cancer, with around 2,600 deaths - around 1,450 of which are deaths in males and around 1,150 of which are deaths in females. The next leading cause of death in Surrey is dementia and Alzheimer's, with around 1,550 deaths - around 500 of which are deaths in males and around 1,050 of which are deaths in females. The third leading cause of death in Surrey is ischaemic heart diseases, with around 950 deaths - around 550 of which are deaths in males and around 400 of which are deaths in females. The other leading causes of death in Surrey, in order, are influenza and pneumonia with around 600 total deaths, cerebrovascular diseases with around 550 total deaths, chronic lower respiratory diseases with around 450 total deaths, ill-defined conditions with around 400 total deaths, accidents with around 300 total deaths, and heart failure with around 250 total deaths.

Life expectancy

Please follow the link or explore the ‘Life expectancy’ page of the Surrey population tableau dashboard below.

Life expectancy at birth is a measure of the average number of years a person would expect to live based on contemporary mortality rates. For a particular area and time period, it is an estimate of the average number of years a new-born baby would survive if they experienced the age-specific mortality rates for that area and time period throughout their life. Surrey residents have on average longer life expectancies than people in the South East and most of England.

There has been a widespread trend of rising life expectancy at birth for males and females across the country and this is also the case for Surrey. Surrey children born in 2021 to 2023 are expected to live longer than Surrey children born in 2001 to 2003.

The life expectancy at birth for those born in Surrey was 81.5 years for males and 85.0 years for females (2021-23), compared to 79.1 and 83.1 for England and 80.3 and 84.1 for the South East. Data collected between 2021-2023 demonstrated that life expectancy has decreased for male and females in Surrey, the South East and England when compared to the period 2017-19.

Table 3: Life Expectancy at Birth across Surrey, the South East and England

Area	Female 2017-19	Female 2021-23	Male 2017-19	Male 2021-23
Surrey	85.3	85.0	82.0	81.5
South East	84.2	84.1	80.7	80.3
England	83.3	83.1	79.7	79.1

Further life expectancy information is available on Surrey-i life expectancy

Life expectancy (2016-20) at ward level, for males the life expectancy is lowest in Portley, Tandridge (77.6 years) and highest in Warlingham West, Tandridge (88 years). For females, the life expectancy is lowest in Ashford North and Stanwell South, Spelthorne and Stanwell North, Spelthorne (81.2 years) and highest in Woldingham, Tandridge (93.5 years). However, data is missing for 10 wards for females and 12 wards for males, so this picture is incomplete.

Table 4: Difference in life expectancy within districts and boroughs

District & Borough	Female – Lowest life expectancy (ward)	Female – Highest life expectancy (ward)	Female – Difference	Male – Lowest life expectancy (ward)	Male – Highest life expectancy (ward)	Male – Difference
Elmbridge	83.5 (Molesey East)	90.0 (Hinchley Wood and Weston Green)	6.5	78.6 (Walton South)	87.6 (Oxshott and Stoke D’Abernon)	9.0
Epsom and Ewell	81.4 (Court)	88.6 (Cuddington)	7.2	79.0 (Town)	86.3 (Stoneleigh)	7.3
Guildford	82.2 (Stoughton)	92.5 (Pirbright)	10.3	79.3 (Westborough)	86.4 (Holy Trinity)	7.1
Mole Valley	83.8 (Dorking South)	89.6 (Fetcham East)	5.8	79.6 Dorking South	86.0 (Fetcham West)	6.4
Reigate and Banstead	81.4 (Redhill East)	86.5 (Meadvale & St John’s)	5.1	78.5 (Horley Central & South)	83.8 (Horley East & Salfords)	5.3
Runnymede	81.6 (Chertsey St Ann’s)	88.4 (Chertsey Riverside)	6.8	78.8 (Chertsey St Ann’s)	83.9 (Ottershaw)	5.1
Spelthorne	81.2 (Ashford North and South)	88.4 (Sunbury East)	7.2	77.8 (Aunbury Common)	82.5 (Ashford East)	4.7
Surrey Heath	81.6 (Frimley Green)	89.1 (Heatherside)	7.5	77.7 (St Michaels)	84.6 (Windlesham & Chobham)	6.9
Tandridge	81.9 (Portley)	93.5 (Woldingham)	11.6	77.6 (Portley)	88.0 (Woldingham West)	10.4
Waverley	81.7 (Godalming Central and Ockford)	92.1 (Godalming Holloway)	10.4	78.2 (Haslemere Critchmere and Shottermill)	87.3 (Farnham Bourne)	9.1
Woking	81.9 (Pyrford)	85.6 (Heathlands)	3.7	80.1 (Byfleet and West Byfleet)	83.9 (Goldsworth Park)	2.8

Life expectancy data at ward level is available from Fingertips

At district and borough level, for males is lowest in Runnymede (80.1 years) and highest in Waverley (82.4 years). Life expectancy for females (2021-23) is also lowest in Runnymede (83.9 years) and is highest in both Elmbridge (85.7 years). More detailed analysis of life expectancy, including analysis at a district and borough level, is available on Surrey-i life expectancy

Inequalities in life expectancy

Inequalities in life expectancy exist between the most and least deprived areas nationally and in Surrey. The overarching measure of inequality in life expectancy in the Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF) PHOF data tool, is the slope index of inequality. The slope index of inequality is a measure of the social gradient in life expectancy (i.e., how much life expectancy varies with deprivation) which can be used to show this inequality. It measures variation in life expectancy across the whole range of deprivation, rather than just considering the extreme groups. The calculation takes into account life expectancy in each deprivation decile within an area and summarises the variation into a single number. This represents the range in years of life expectancy across the social gradient from most to least deprived, based on a statistical analysis of the relationship between life expectancy and deprivation across all deprivation deciles.

The range in years of life expectancy across the social gradient from most to least deprived in Surrey is 6.7 years for males and 4.6 years for females. This gap is lower than the difference across England, which is 10.5 years in males and 8.3 years in females, however there is a wider range in inequalities between people in each of the districts and boroughs in Surrey (OHID public health profiles).

The figure below shows that in males, the slope index of inequality is greatest in Surrey Heath– with 8.2 years between males born in the most and least deprived areas. The gap is smallest in Mole Valley, with 3.7 years.

Figure 2: Inequality in LE at birth in males in Surrey districts and boroughs (2021-2023)

Chart showing the inequality in life expectancy for males in Surrey local authorities. The chart shows that in males, the slope index of inequality is greatest in Surrey Heath – with 8.2 years between males born in the most and least derived areas. The gap is smallest in Mole Valley, with 3.7 years.

The figure below shows that in females the slope index of inequality is greatest in Woking – with 7.1 years between females born in the most and least deprived areas. The gap is smallest in Elmbridge, with 2.7 years.

Figure 3: Inequality in LE at birth in females in Surrey districts and boroughs (2021-2023)

Chart showing the inequality in life expectancy for females in Surrey local authorities. The chart shows that in females the slope index of inequality is greatest in Woking – with 7.1 years between females born in the most and least derived areas. The gap is smallest in Elmbridge, with 2.7 years.

Healthy life expectancy

Healthy life expectancy at birth is an estimate of the average number of years babies born this year would live in a state of good general health if mortality levels at each age, and the level of good health at each age, remain constant in the future. This is an important measure to consider alongside life expectancy and in terms of health inequalities. Between 2021 and 2023 healthy life expectancy in Surrey was 65.7 years and 66.5 years for males and females respectively. This was higher than both the South East (males 63.5, females 64.4) and England (males 61.5, females 61.9). This data can be explored on Fingertips.